According to the Association of Construction and Housing Professionals of Quebec (APCHQ), the residential construction sector in Quebec is expected to see a slight recovery over the next two years.
Analysis of forecasts for the residential construction market in Quebec.
Start of construction:
After a significant decline in 2023, the APCHQ anticipates a 13% increase in housing starts in 2024, reaching approximately 44,000 units, followed by a 14% rise in 2025, for a total of 50,000 units. This growth would be primarily attributed to a gradual normalization of interest rates, encouraging real estate investment.
Type of constructions:
The majority of new constructions would involve rental housing, accounting for about 70% of new homes in urban centres. Although increases are expected for single-family homes and condominiums, the volumes would remain below the averages of the past two decades.
Housing deficit:
Despite this recovery, the anticipated production would remain insufficient to address the current housing deficit, exacerbated by increasing demand. This situation could maintain pressure on the real estate market, influencing prices and housing accessibility.
Residential renovations:
Furthermore, the residential renovation sector is expected to see significant growth, with estimated spending of $17.5 billion in 2024 (+9%) and $20 billion in 2025 (+14%). This trend reflects an increased willingness among homeowners to improve or expand their homes, possibly in response to the challenges of the new construction market.
In summary, although signs of recovery are noticeable in the residential construction sector in Quebec, the challenges related to meeting housing demand remain present, requiring ongoing attention from industry stakeholders and policymakers.
Link: APCHQ